1995年-2009年东北地区工业部门CO_2排放演变及影响因素分析  

Evolution and Decomposition Analysis of Industrial CO_2 Emissions in Northeast China during the Period 1995-2009

作　　者：李鹤[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春130012

出　　处：《资源科学》2012年第2期309-315,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所前沿领域项目(编号:KZCX3-SW-NA09-07);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41001097)

摘　　要：工业部门的节能减排对于我国实现2020年减排目标意义重大,需要结合不同区域工业化发展阶段有针对性地提出相应的节能减排措施。以东北老工业基地为例,利用工业CO2排放估算模型及指数分解模型,定量分析了1995年-2009年区域工业CO2排放演变特征及其影响因素,并提出了相应的减排对策。研究结果表明,研究期内东北地区工业CO2排放构成变动较小,排放总量整体呈上升态势,振兴战略实施以来增长尤为迅猛,区域工业CO2排放强度则快速降低。工业产出规模的快速扩张及行业结构的变动是导致区域工业CO2排放总量迅速上升的主要因素,前者的贡献更为显著,行业CO2排放强度的降低则对区域工业CO2排放量快速增长起到了抑制作用,但研究期内该因素的减排效应仍难以抵消由工业规模快速扩张以及行业结构变动导致的CO2排放量增长。未来减缓东北地区工业部门CO2排放应在保持工业产出规模持续增长的前提下,更加注重降低行业CO2排放强度及优化工业结构。As the biggest contributor of national CO2 emissions,the industrial CO2 emissions reduction is crucial to achieving China’s overall CO2 emissions reduction target in 2020. Considering the regional difference of industrialization in China,countermeasures for industrial CO2 emissions reduction should also be different accordingly.Taking the northeast old industrial base in China as a case,first,this study estimated industrial CO2 emissions in Northeast China from 1995 through 2009 following the IPCC guidelines.Second,major factors contributing to changes in industrial CO2 emissions were identified by utilizing the factor decomposition model.Finally, some reduction approaches for industrial CO2 emissions in Northeast China were provided.Results show that there was little change in the constitution of industrial CO2 emissions during the period 1995-2009.CO2 emissions from fossil energy consumption,manufacturing industry,and Liaoning Province remained the biggest contributors,respectively.The total industrial CO2 emissions in Northeast China increased from 419.262×106t CO2 in 1995 to 822.757×106t CO2 in 2009,especially since the implementation of revitalization strategy for the northeast old industrial base,A radical increase of total industrial CO2 emissions occurred over the period 2003-2009.Meanwhile,the intensity of industrial CO2 emissions showed a rapid descending trend,but the declining rate still lagged far behind the growth rate of gross industrial output value.Factors contributing to changes in industrial CO2 emissions were decomposed into industrial output value growth,industrial structural shift,and sectoral CO2 emission intensity change.Decomposition analysis indicates that the fast growth of industrial output value and industrial structural shift were the main factors leading to the rapid rise of industrial CO2 emissions.The driving effects of the former factor were much more significant and strengthened due to the increasing demand of fossil energy and expanding output of high-carbon products during

关 键 词：工业CO2排放 因素分解 低碳经济 东北地区 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]