分布式水文模型结合气象预报方法初步探讨——以三峡区间实时洪水预报为例  

Discussion on flood forecast method by distributed hydrological model combining with meteorological forecast data:case of real-time flood forecast of Three Gorges region

作　　者：庞树森[1] 许继军[1] 

机构地区：[1]长江科学院水资源所,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《人民长江》2012年第3期55-58,79,共5页Yangtze River

摘　　要：为了尽量消除因流域空间非均一性引起的水文模拟不确定性,采用基于GBHM分布式水文模型以及具有明确物理意义的模型参数,利用三峡区间2011年5～6月期间的气象预报信息,探讨该区域实时洪水预报方法,以及不同预见期的洪水预报精度。结果表明,分布式水文模型与气象预报数据结合,能够较好地模拟该区间的洪水过程。该方法在一定预见期内能够对实时洪水过程进行预报,预报精度很大程度上取决于降水预报的准确性。In order to eliminate the uncertainty of hydrological simulation induced by nonuniformity of basin space, we adopted GBHM distributed hydrological model and the parameters with definite physical meaning to study the real - time flood forecasting method and flood forecasting accuracy of different foreseeable periods using the meteorological forecast information in the Three Gorges region from May to June in 2011. It is shown that the distributed hydrological model combining with the meteorological forecast data can simulate the flood process well. The method can predict a real - time flood process in a certain prediction period, and the flood forecasting precision depends largely on the accuracy of precipitation forecast.

关 键 词：分布式水文模型 实时洪水预报 降水预报 三峡区间 

分 类 号：P334.92[天文地球—水文科学]