短期利率跳跃-扩散模型的非参数门限估计  

Nonparametric Threshold Estimation on Jump-diffusion Model of Short Rate

作　　者：谈正达[1] 胡海鸥[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2012年第1期8-15,共8页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71001069)

摘　　要：跳跃行为是短期利率动态过程的一个重要特征,跳跃-扩散模型能更好的描述短期利率行为。本文应用非参数门限估计对短期利率的跳跃-扩散模型进行了仿真实验和实证分析。仿真实验表明,门限估计能有效消除传统非参数估计对跳跃-扩散模型的估计偏差,估计参数具有无偏性。对上海银行间同业拆借利率(Shibor)的实证分析发现,门限估计有效探测到了短期Shibor的跳跃行为,且这种跳跃行为和宏微观的经济金融现象相一致。最后和扩散模型的实证比较得到,基于门限估计的跳跃-扩散模型对短期利率分布的偏度和峰度的拟合能力更优。Jumping behavior is an important feature of short interest rate dynamic process. Jump-diffusion model can better describe the behavior of short rate process. Simulation experiments show that nonparametric threshold estimators perform better in finite sample than alternative model. Empirical analysis on the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate （Shibor） finds that threshold estimators can effectively detect the jump behavior of short-term Shibor, which consistent with the micro-macro economic and financial phenomena. Comparing with diffusion model, jump - diffusion model based on threshold estimates can more accurately describe the interest rates distribution of skewness and kurtosis, and better reflect the volatility behavior of interest rate.

关 键 词：短期利率 跳跃-扩散 门限估计 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]