2011年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验  

The Performance Verification of the Medium-Range Forecasting for T639,ECMWF and JAPAN Models from September to November 2011

作　　者：符娇兰 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2012年第2期238-243,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金-青年科学基金项目(41105030)资助

摘　　要：文章对20年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式的中期预报产品的预报性能进行了检验分析。结果表明:三家模式均对亚洲中高纬度环流形势以及副热带高压的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。EC模式对各系统及要素的预报最接近零场;日本和T639模式次之。中期时效内,各家模式对850 hPa温度具有较好的预报性能,尤其是我国南方地区,温度预报准确率高。对台风"纳沙"(Nesat)的路径及强度预报,三家模式预报路径均存在不同程度的偏东,强度偏弱,预报稳定性较差。相比而言,EC与日本模式预报误差较小,T639模式预报相对较差。Based on the model output data,the synoptic verification of the medium-range forecasting（larger than 72 h leading time）for T639,ECMWF and Japan operational models during the autumn of 2011 is conducted.The results show that the three models all have good performance on predicting the evolution of large-scale circulation,such as zonal index and subtropical high.As a whole,the forecasting ability of ECMWF is the best among all models.Meanwhile,all the three models have good performance on forecasting of temperature at 850 hPa,especially over southern China.With respect to forecasting of typhoon Nesat,all the forecasted tracks lie east of the initial position,and its center pressure is larger than that of initial field.Although the forecasting stability is not so good,the forecast standard errors of ECMWF and Japan models are still comparatively small.

关 键 词：T639模式 ECMWF 日本模式 中期天气预报 天气学检验 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]