非洲在世界石油供给格局中的地位演变  

Africa's position shift in world oil supply pattern

作　　者：郝丽莎[1] 赵媛[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210046

出　　处：《地理研究》2012年第3期507-520,共14页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40971289);教育部博士点基金(20093207110010);江苏高校优势学科建设工程专项基金

摘　　要：21世纪以来,非洲已成为世界石油进口大国寻求来源地多元化、保障自身石油安全的战略高地,也成为我国的第二大石油来源地。考察非洲在世界石油供给格局中的地位及演变,有利于系统把握非洲石油供给的优劣势,为优化我国对非石油合作战略提供依据。本文以国家为研究单元,综合运用箱线图和空间聚类分析法,创新份额和位序综合分析法,对比考察了1980～2010年间,非洲在世界石油探明储量、生产量、储采比和出口量格局中的地位及演变。结果表明:非洲是当今世界除中东以外,规模以上石油供给国最为集中的地区,在新老接替中,实现总体供给地位的巩固和提升;非洲在世界石油供给格局中的主要优势在于其高储采比和高出口率,是未来世界石油持续增产增销的重点地区之一;非洲逐渐进入世界石油供给格局的核心地带,石油地缘战略地位大为提升;在未来较长时间内,非洲仍将是我国主要的石油来源地之一,我国应当在非洲推进来源地多元化战略,真正进入非洲核心石油市场,扩大供给来源,并分散供给风险。In the 21st century, Africa has been a strategic place for major oil importers seeking to diversify imports in order to achieve greater oil security, and also Africa has been the second biggest source for China, so that analyses of Africa＇s position shift in world oil supply pattern could help us to get a better understanding of Africa＇s advantages and disadvantages in the oil supply, in order to optimize China＇s strategy for oil cooperation with Africa. In this paper, boxplots and spatial cluster analysis are integrated, together with modified share and rank analysis, to examine and compare Africa＇s positions and their shift in the patterns of world oil proved reserves, oil production, reserves-to-production ratio, and exports. The results show that, Africa is the most concentrated area of oil supplying countries besides Middle East, and with the supersession of the old by the new, its overall supply position is relatively steady or even promoted; Africa＇s relative advantages in world oil supply pattern are its high reserves-to-production ratio and high export ratio, so that it is one of the key areas to provide sustained growth of oil production and export in the future; Africa has gradually penetrated the world＇s heartland of oil supply, and its oil geopolitical importance is enhanced greatly; in the long-term perspective, Africa will still be one of the major oil sources for China, and China should promote diverse strategies to Africa and enter Africa＇s core oil market, in order to enlarge supply, and achieve risk diversification.

关 键 词：非洲 石油供给 地位演变 箱线图 空间聚类 石油合作 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]