我国区域产业结构优化及其影响因素分析——基于分位数回归方法  

Analysis on Optimization of Regional Industrial Structure and Its Influencing Factors: Based on Quantile Regression Approach

作　　者：冯芳芳[1] 蒲勇健[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030 [2]重庆大学可持续发展研究院,重庆400044

出　　处：《技术经济》2012年第2期36-42,共7页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目"和谐社会的微观基础"(07BJY017)

摘　　要：测算了2000—2008年我国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的产业结构优化指标值,构建了分位数回归模型,对2000—2008年我国区域产业结构优化程度及其影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:金融发展、实物投资、对外贸易、技术创新对区域产业结构优化具有一定的促进作用,但在条件分布的不同位置,这种促进作用存在明显差异;人口流动对区域产业结构优化具有负面影响,在低分位数处该影响最大,在高分位数处该影响相对较小;汇率制度的变迁导致各因素对产业结构优化的影响发生明显改变。This paper calculates the index values of industrial structure optimization of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2008,and constructs the regression model based on the quantile regression approach to study the optimization of regional industrial structure and its influencing factors. The results show as follows ： financial development, material investment, foreign trade and technological innovation have significant positive influences on the optimization of regional industrial structure, and these influences are difference at different conditional distributions;migration movement is unfavorable to the optimization of regional industrial structure;the change of exchange rate system results in the obvious differences in the in- fluences of these factors on the optimization of regional industrial structure.

关 键 词：区域产业结构 产业结构优化 汇率制度 分位数回归 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F224