足球运动员技战术素质水平与胜率因子回归分析  

Regression Analysis on Technical and Tactical Quality and Winning Percentage Factor of Football Players

作　　者：王凯[1] 吕晓伟[1] 何江川[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西民族大学体育与健康科学学院,广西南宁530006

出　　处：《首都体育学院学报》2012年第2期146-150,共5页Journal of Capital University of Physical Education and Sports

基　　金：2007年国家民委科研项目(07GX07);广西哲学社会科学"十一五"规划2008年度研究项目(08FTY003)

摘　　要：为更好的认识中国足球与世界强队技战术水平的差距,提高我国男子足球运动训练水平,通过研究中国国家男子足球队与国外对手的相关技术参数,提取、分析8项原指标,并采用因子分析法,进行降维处理,提取影响中国男子国家足球队技战术水平的原指标的4个共性因子,解释其含义,在因子分析的基础上,通过逐步回归分析,建立球队胜率与共性因子的回归模型及方程式,并对其进行讨论。结果显示:共性因子可以为足球技战术训练提出新的参考意义,实践性较强;在共性因子基础上的回归方程与观测值之间的拟合优度良好,实用性、可操作性较强,极具复制性,具有较好的参考意义;因子回归模型的建立可以为足球比赛赛前技战术的训练控制和比赛成绩的预测提供理论依据。In order to better understand the difference on tactical and technical between Chinese football team and world top teams and improve the training level of our man football team, this paper studies the relevant technical parameter of China national man football team and foreign opponent teams. Eight origi- nal indexes are taken and analyzed, and finally 4 common factors influencing Chinese national football team are obtained. Based on the analysis of factors, through stepwise regression analysis, the author built a team with the common factor of winning formula and regression model, and carried on the discussion. The result shows that the common factor can put forward the new meaning for football tactical and tech- nical training. Based on the common factor in the regression equation and observations of regression equa- tion, there has goodness-of-fit, practicability and operability. Factor regression model can provide the theo- retical basis for football tactical and technical training pre-competition and performance prediction.

关 键 词：技战术素质 胜率 训练控制 因子回归模型 

分 类 号：G843[文化科学—体育训练]