基于HSPF及回归模型的淡水河流域非点源负荷计算  

Estimating nonpoint pollution loading from the Danshui catchment based on HSPF and regression model

作　　者：张恒[1,2] 曾凡棠[1] 房怀阳[1] 张恒军[1] 萧洁儿[1] 林澍[1] 

机构地区：[1]环境保护部华南环境科学研究所环境模拟与污染控制中心,广州510655 [2]中国科学院广州地球化学研究所,广州510640

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2012年第4期856-864,共9页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家重大科技专项(No.2008ZX07011-0010)~~

摘　　要：应用分布式水文模型HSPF结合回归模型,对广东省东江流域中淡水河流域的非点源负荷进行计算.研究结果显示,模型较好地再现了悬浮泥沙(SS)、CODCr、NO3--N及TP在2010年内的通量随时间的变化过程.统计结果表明,淡水河流域的SS、CODCr、NO3--N及TP在汛期的通量对年通量的贡献十分显著,分别占年通量的86.81%、77.56%、69.83%和73.08%;NH4+-N和TN的计算结果与实测值之间拟合程度较弱,可能是由于这两类污染物与人类活动的点源排放关系密切,而本研究中所用回归方程只考虑了径流量与污染物通量之间的关系,并没有更多地考虑与人类活动相关的因素.In this study, the streamflow simulated by HSPF （Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran） and a regression model were used to estimate nonpoint source loading of the Danshui catchment in Dongjiang watershed, Guangdong Province. Results showed that the regression model made a reasonable reproduction of the temporal variation of pollutant fluxes during 2010. Statistical results indicated the significant contribution of pollutant fluxes during wet season to annual fluxes. The fluxes of SS, CODcr, NO3- -N and TP contributed 86.81% , 77.56% , 69.83% and 73.08% to their annual fluxes, respectively. Regression model in this study only established the linkage between streamflow and pollutant fluxes. Other factors, such as anthropogenic activities, were not included. Thus, the weak correlation between NH4＋ -N, TN computed fluxes and observed value may be due to the close relationship between these nutrients and point source discharge from anthropogenic activities.

关 键 词：HSPF 回归模型 淡水河流域 非点源负荷 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]