基于EMD的中国生猪生产波动分析  

Chinese hog cycle:in the perspective of EMD analysis

作　　者：王俊能[1,2,3] 许振成[1,2] 杨剑[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州地球化学研究所,广东广州510640 [2]环境保护部华南环境科学研究所,广东广州510655 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2012年第4期153-156,共4页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：环保公益性行业科研专项(201009067);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(PM-zx021-201106-063)

摘　　要：采用EMD和FFT方法对中国的生猪产量波动周期进行分析,结果表明:(1)我国生猪产量总体发展特征是在波动中不断上升,但年增长率呈缓慢下降趋势;(2)就产量而言,我国生猪波动周期以3.33年短周期为主(贡献率高达53.7%),此外还存在一个较为清晰的5年中周期以及更长周期的波动尺度;(3)近几年生猪产量波动越来越大,波动周期性也越加模糊。In this paper, Chinese hog cycle was analyzed based on EMD and FFT. The results indicated that Chinese pork production was increased with fluctuation, and its growth rate was deereased gently. EMD analysis confirms that the fluctuations of pork production had 3.33-year, 5-year and long-year time scales. And fluctuations of the 3.33-year was the most prominent （accumulated to 53.7%）. Furthermore, pork production was fluctuating seriously in the last few years, and periodicity also became uncertain.

关 键 词：生猪生产 波动周期 经验模态分解 快速傅立叶变换 

分 类 号：F326.34[经济管理—产业经济]