江苏省生活废水排放量的多元非线性回归预测  

Prediction of Domestic Waste Water Missions in Jiangsu Province Based on the Nonlinear Prediction Model

作　　者：李磊 刘学 刘洁 

机构地区：[1]江南大学商学院,江苏无锡214122 [2]江苏环境与发展研究中心,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《经济数学》2012年第1期90-93,共4页Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：国家重点实验室开放基金项目(HC201024);国家社会科学基金项目(08BJY060);江苏省教育厅重点基地重大项目(10JSJD25);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX11_0509)

摘　　要：本文依据1999～2009年江苏省的人均日生活用水量和人均GDP并结合生活废水排放量的资料,建立了生活废水排放量的三维非线性预测模型,并进行了评估和分析,该模型有较高的拟合精度.根据预测数据,2020年江苏省城市生活废水排放量将达66.85亿吨,为2009年排放量的两倍有余,城市生态环境面临巨大压力.最后本文提出了相对应的政策建议。This paper established a three-dimensional non-linear prediction model on domestic waste water discharge ac- cording to the per capita GDP, per capita domestic water consumption and the data of domestic wastewater discharge from 1999 to 2009 in Jiangsu Province. And the analysis proves the model has a high fitting precision. Based on the prediction data, the a- mount of domestic wastewater discharge of Jiangsu Province will reach 6. 685 billion tons in 2020, more than two times the dis- charge in 2009, which imposes enormous pressure on urban environment. At last, some policy recommendations were offered as references to the relevant departments.

关 键 词：生活废水 非线性 预测 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]