基于GM(1,1)模型的新疆保险业“十二五”发展预测  

Prediction on Xinjiang Insurance Industry's Development in the 12th Five-Year Based on GM(1,1) Model

作　　者：时乐乐[1] 赵军[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《经济数学》2012年第1期106-110,共5页Journal of Quantitative Economics

摘　　要：选择新疆2002—2010年的保费收入,保险密度,保险深度这三项指标,其中将保费收入划分为财产险保费收入和人身险保费收入,对新疆保险业"十二五"发展进行预测.采用的预测方法是灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)预测模型(一阶一元灰色模型).并对预测结果进行定性分析,提炼出本文的结论,为新疆保险业"十二五"发展战略提供坚实的数据支撑.This paper selected three indexes： premium, insurance density and insurance depth, and the premium was di- vided into property insurance premium and life insurance premium. Using these indexes, the data from 2002 to 2010 was used for predicting the development of Xinjiang insurance industry in the 12th Five-Year. It predicts these indexes by adopting the methodology of GM（1,1） model. Based on this,the qualitative analysis about the prediction outcome was made, which can pro- vide a solid data support for the development strategy of Xiniiang insurance industry in the 12 th Five-year.

关 键 词：新疆保险业 GM(1 1)模型 预测 

分 类 号：F840[经济管理—保险] F224