中国家禽产品出口遭遇疫情风险的博弈对策研究  

Epidemic Management Based on Game Theory Analysis of Chinese Poultry Products Export

作　　者：曾小艳[1,2] 陶建平[1,2] 郭兴旭 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院 [2]湖北省农村发展研究中心 [3]武汉市农村技术开发中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《标准科学》2012年第3期86-90,共5页Standard Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"突发性动物疫情公共危机演化机理及应急公共政策研究"(11AZD106)的部分成果

摘　　要：文章在阐述中国家禽产品出口贸易现状的基础上,采用博弈模型分析了动物疫病爆发时不同认知风险下采取贸易禁令的程度,讨论各种情况对于家禽产品出口贸易的影响,得出为降低疫病风险,需要对毗邻国家边境进行监控、建立边境缓冲区或将疫病的爆发区域化,增强生产协议、检验检疫的可靠性,借助流行病学中的生物和环境科学进行防控等结论。最后针对我国的具体情况,提出建立完备的预警机制、推进无疫区认可建设等建议。This essay included a review of present situation of Chinese poultry products export, and then discussed a simple game theory model focusing trade bans in the event of disease outbreaks with perceived risk. Specific model outcomes are that effective border monitoring of adjacent countries, border buffer zones, or regionalizing the outbreak, high confidence in production protocols and testing, and depending on the underlying nature of the biological and environmental processes driving the epidemiological system are essential for the reducing of disease risk. General recommendations are that we should take strategies such as built early-warning mechanism, animal disease free zone and so on to improve the Chinese poultry products export.

关 键 词：家禽产品 出口贸易 博弈论模型 疫病风险 政策建议 

分 类 号：S851[农业科学—预防兽医学] F752.6[农业科学—兽医学]