内在投资价值理论在中国股市的有效性检验  

Intrinsic Value Theory Appled in Chinese Stock Market

作　　者：廖承红[1] 

机构地区：[1]贵州财经学院管理科学与工程管理学院,贵州贵阳550003

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2012年第2期38-42,共5页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：用F-O模型对深发展1991～2010年的内在价值进行测算,然后实证分析股价和内在价值之间的协整关系,发现在过去的20年中,两变量间并不存在协整关系。这说明中国股市是无效市场。通过计算泡沫值发现,20世纪90年代,深发展的泡沫值非常高,进入21世纪后泡沫值逐渐降低,反映出中国股市逐渐走向价值回归之路。F O model is used to measure the intrinsic value of Shenzhen Development Bank from 1991 to 2010. After analyzing the stock price and its intrinsic value, it turns out that there is no cointegration between the two in the past 20 years, which means the stock market in China is ineffient. And the bubble value of this company was abnormally high during 1990s, then it was gradually reduced after 2000. The reduced bubble value maybe means that the Chinese stock mar- ket is more and more effient.

关 键 词：中国股市 F-O模型 内在价值 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]