应用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对四川省血吸虫病人群感染率进行分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Schistosomiasis Infection Rate of Population Based on Grey Model(1,1) in Sichuan Province

作　　者：张旭东[1] 沈思魁 刘阳[1] 陆定[1] 吴子松[1] 陈琳[1] 邱东川[1] 钟波[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川省疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所,成都610041 [2]四川大学华西临床医学院

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2012年第3期181-183,共3页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

摘　　要：目的分析四川省2003-2010年血吸虫病人群感染率变化趋势,应用GM(1,1)模型对今后3年人群感染率进行预测,为下一步制定全省血吸虫病防控措施提供参考。方法收集四川省2003-2010年血吸虫病人群感染率资料,应用GM(1,1)模型进行拟合,建立预测模型。结果四川省血吸虫病人群感染率呈逐年下降趋势;人群感染率预测模型为(1)(t+1)=-103.1157e-0.4950t+132.6545,模型拟合精度高(后验差比值C=0.1672,小误差概率P=1),2003-2010年感染率GM(1,1)模型预测值与实际值吻合程度较好,预测2011-2013年感染率分别为1.2590/万、0.7675/万和0.4678/万。结论该模型的拟合效果较好,预测结果显示今后3年内全省血吸虫病人群感染率将呈下降趋势;在血吸虫病低感染率和低感染度地区建立该模型进行疫情预测对制定防控策略具有重要参考价值。Objective To analyze the trend of schistosomiasis infection rate of the population in Sichuan province from 2003 to 2010,and apply the Grey Model（1,1） to predict the infection rate for the next 3 years and provide reference for the further policy of prevention and control.Methods Based on GM（1,1）,the prediction model was set up by using the material on schistosomiasis infection rate in Sichuan Province from 2003 to 2010.Results The schistosomiasis infection rate was decreasing year by year,the model of the infection rate of the population was（1）（t＋1）=-103.1157e^-0.4950t＋132.6545,The predicting precision of GM（1,1） was desirable in accordance with criterion of the grey model prediction assessment,the predicted values based on GM（1,1） were consistent with the actual rates from 2003 to 2010.The predicted values of future three years were 1.2590/104、0.7675/104 and 0.4678/104 respectively.Conclusion The GM（1,1） had a good fit and accurate prediction,The schistosomiasis infection rate will decline in future three years according to the predicted result,and the model can provide important reference for making strategy in those areas where were under the low infection rate.

关 键 词：血吸虫病 感染率 GM(1 1) 

分 类 号：R532.2[医药卫生—内科学]