考虑个体移动和局域控制的SIR传染模型  

A susceptible-infected-removed model considering individual mobility and local control

作　　者：赵敬[1,2] 方义[1,2] 夏承遗[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学天津市智能计算与软件新技术重点实验室,天津300384 [2]天津理工大学教育部计算机视觉与系统重点实验室,天津300384

出　　处：《智能系统学报》2011年第6期515-519,共5页CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(60904063);天津市应用基础及前沿技术研究计划资助项目(11JCYBJC06600);天津市高等学校科技发展基金资助项目(20090813);国家大学生创新实验计划资助项目(101006019)

摘　　要：为了能够有效地对疾病传播进行建模和分析,提出了带有个体移动性的考虑局部感染程度和局部控制程度的SIR模型,引入了感染半径和控制半径的概念.在二维平面空间的基础上,首先介绍了带有个体运动的模型,然后将此模型与改进的SIR模型结合,通过大量的数值仿真分析感染半径和控制半径对疾病传播的影响;同时,还利用数值仿真研究了移动个体密度和个体运动方向对疾病传播的影响;此外,基于改进的SIR模型提出了一些能够抑制疾病传播的直观控制策略,如对感染个体进行隔离、控制以及对人群进行疏散等.In order to effectively analyze and model the spread of infectious diseases,this paper proposed a novel Susceptible-Infected-Removed（SIR） model considering mobile individuals and local control in which the concept of the infection radius and control radius were introduced.Based on the two-dimensional space,the individual motion model and improved SIR model were considered first,and then large-scale numerical simulation was used to explore the influence of the infection radius and control radius on the behavior of disease propagation.At the same time,the paper also investigated the impact of population density and the direction of mobile agents in relation to the spread of disease.Furthermore,some intuitive control strategies were presented to inhibit the diffusion of epidemics on the basis of the proposed novel SIR model;for instance,separating and controlling the infective individual and evacuating high-density populations.

关 键 词：个体移动 SIR模型 感染半径 控制半径 

分 类 号：O242.1[理学—计算数学]