我国信贷规模、价格与货币供应量关系的实证研究  

China credit scale, price and currency supply relation's demonstration research

作　　者：王若晨[1] 刘波[1] 

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学管理学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《特区经济》2012年第4期71-73,共3页Special Zone Economy

摘　　要：本文根据1978～2009年我国历年银行信贷量、居民消费价格指数和货币供应量的有关数据,运用协整理论,从短期和长期两方面对改革开放以来我国信贷规模、价格与货币供应量之间的动态关系进行实证研究,结果表明,三者之间存在长期均衡关系。从总体上说,货币供应量、银行信贷的变化对物价均有明显的正效应,且货币供应量的变化较银行信贷对物价有更大的影响。从短期看,银行信贷的变化较之货币供应的变化对物价又有更快的更为明显的效果,具有更好的时效性。因此,在制定政策稳定物价、抑制和缓解通货膨胀时,应从总体上着眼于货币供应量的调控,同时考虑到时效性,也要关注银行信贷的短期影响,将二者有机结合起来以达到更好的宏观调控效果。Based on the amount of our country over the years bank credit,the consumer price index and money supply data of 1978-2009,Using co-integration theory to empirical research on the dynamic relationship between the scale of China＇s credit,price and currency supply since the reform and opening up in the short-term and long-term,The results show that,long-run equilibrium relationship exists between these three variables.Overall,the changes of money supply and bank credit have significantly positive effect on prices,and changes of the money supply have a greater impact on prices than the bank credit.In the short term,compared to changes of the money supply,Changes of the bank credit have faster and more obvious effect on prices,and better timeliness.Therefore,when we develop policies to stabilize prices,suppress and ease inflation,the regulation should focus on the money supply general,meanwhile taking into account the timeliness,and also concern about the short-term impact of bank credit,combine these two aspects to achieve a better macro-control effects.

关 键 词：信贷规模 居民消费价格指数 货币供应量 协整检验 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F726F822F224