违约风险下的信贷决策模型与机制  

Credit decision model and mechanisms under default risk

作　　者：庞素琳[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学公共管理学院/应急管理学院/金融工程研究所,广州510632 [2]广东省公共网络安全风险评价与预警应急技术研究中心,广州510632

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2012年第4期58-70,共13页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70871055;71173089);广东省高校高层次人才资助项目;教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-08-0615);广东省科技计划资助项目(2010A032000002;2010B010600028);广东省第三期"211工程"重大项目基金资助项目;广东省高校重点人文社科研究基地重大资助项目(09JDXM63006)

摘　　要：研究了违约风险下的信贷决策模型与机制,通过以银行个体合理性和激励相容性作为约束条件,建立了在考虑违约风险和项目成功概率条件下的信贷决策模型,分别给出了基于抵质押贷款和信用贷款策略下的信贷决策机制,探讨了信贷配给机制与无配给机制的设计方法,给出了在信贷出现配给时银行发放信用贷款和有抵质押贷款的条件.最后运用实例详细分析并讨论了不同违约概率条件下企业项目成功概率对银行期望收益的影响,得到了银行相应的贷款临界值和在不同项目成功概率条件下银行最大可接受的违约概率.This article studies credit decision model and mechanisms under default risk.By taking individual rationality of a bank and incentive compatibility as constraint conditions,we propose a credit decision model with consideration of both default risk and success probability of a project.We give the credit decision mechanisms based on the strategies of the loan on mortgage and the credit loan respectively.We discuss the design methods of the mechanisms with both credit rationing and non-rationing.We get the conditions when the bank will make a credit loan or a loan on mortgage when there is credit rationing.At last,we use an example to analyse and discuss what effects the success probability of the project will have on the expectation return of the bank.We give the critical loan values of the bank and the maximum acceptable default probability for the bank with different success probabilities of the project.

关 键 词：违约概率 项目成功概率 信贷决策模型与机制 激励相容性 个体合理性 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]