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出 处:《科学学研究》2012年第5期716-720,共5页Studies in Science of Science
基 金:国家社科基金重大项目(11&ZD163)
摘 要:技术进步是弥补不可再生资源耗竭的长期决定因素之一。研究基于资源跨期开采模型,首先分析技术进步分别从调整资源可采储量、提升资源利用效率、促进资源替代以及降低资源开采成本等途径对资源最优开采路径的影响,然后借助案例对各类技术进步影响途径的分析结果进行了模拟验证。结论表明,除了增加资源可采储量之外,不存在某类的技术进步可以既增加社会福利又有利于资源的可持续利用,而任何技术进步都需要相应的政策措施来引导和约束,最后在结论基础上提出政策参考建议。Technological progress is a long-term decisive element to make up for non-renewable resources depletion.Based on the resources intertemporal optimization exploitation model,the influence of technological progress to resources optimal exploitation path was analyzed from four aspects including adjusting recoverable reserves,improving efficiency,promoting resources replacement and reducing the cost of mining.Then the influence ways of technological progress were simulated and verified with a case.The results indicate that,except for increasing recoverable reserves,no any kind of technological progress can not only increase social benefits but also improve the resources sustainable utilization,and any technological progress needs corresponding policy measures to guide and constraint.Finally,some policy recommendations were proposed based on the conclusion.
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