南宁市2000—2009年道路交通伤害时间序列分析  

Time series analysis on road traffic injury in Nanning city,2000-2009

作　　者：彭振仁[1] 杨莉[1] 刘勇[2] 张海英[1] 陈世艺[1] 尹晔[1] 覃莉[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西医科大学公共卫生学院职业卫生与环境卫生学教研室,广西南宁530021 [2]广西医科大学研究生学院

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2012年第5期574-575,共2页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(30860237);广西自然科学基金(桂科自0832156);广西2009年研究生教育创新计划资助项目(2009105981004M172)

摘　　要：目的建立广西自治区南宁市道路交通伤害的预测模型,掌握南宁市道路交通伤害的发生和变化趋势,为预防和控制南宁市道路交通伤害提供参考依据。方法收集南宁市2000—2009年道路交通伤害资料,进行时间序列分析,建立自回归求和移动平均模型(ARIMA模型),对南宁市2010—2011年道路交通伤害发生情况进行预测。结果建立了南宁市道路交通伤害事故发生次数、死亡人数、受伤人数和直接经济损失各自的ARIMA模型,模型拟合与预测效果良好,预测模型均为ARIMA(1,0,0),2010年各指标的预测值依次为472次、145人、562人、157.043 6万元;2011年各指标的预测值依次为464次、141人、527人、161.120 9万元。结论 ARIMA模型在道路交通伤害预测中具有较好的应用价值。Objective To establish predictive models for road traffic injury（RTI） in Nanning city,and to elucidate the trend of RTI for prevention and controll of RTI in Nanning. Methods The RTI data from 2000 to 2009 in Nanning city were collected and the autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model was used to analyze and predict the trend of RTI from 2010 to 2011 in Nanning. Results A series of predictive equations on RTI were established based on ARIMA model.The model fitting was effcetive and the predictive data on RTI were close to the true statistical data,and all the predictive models were ARIMA（1,0,0）.The predictions for number of accident,number of people dead and injured due to injury,and direct economic lost were 472,145 and 562 persons,and 1 570 436 RMB yuan for the calendar year of 2010 and 464,141 and 527 persons,and 1 611 029 RMB yuan for 2011 based on the models. Conclusion The ARIMA model could be applied in RTI prediction effectively.

关 键 词：道路交通伤害 时间序列分析 自回归求和移动平均模型 

分 类 号：R181.39[医药卫生—流行病学]