天津市水资源足迹灾变预测  

Water disaster prediction for Tianjin Municipality based on water footprint

作　　者：李健[1,2] 张吉辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]天津理工大学循环经济研究院,天津300191

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2012年第2期63-67,共5页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(08BJY004);天津市科委项目(07ZLZLZT03500);天津市经信委项目(2010-KT-009(2));天津市高校人文社科项目(20082105)

摘　　要：为实现缺水区域水资源灾害提前预测,从水足迹视角(考虑蓝水、绿水和灰水),构建了区域水资源足迹灾变预测模型,并以天津市为例,综合运用自上而下和自下而上两种算法,按照生产用水(第一产业、第二产业、第三产业)、生活用水、生态用水和污水排放4个方面对2000-2009年天津市水资源足迹进行了计算,获得了天津市近10年的水足迹数据(每年介于60亿～80亿m3之间),并以此为基础数据进行了精度较高(年均相对误差为0.012 8)的灾变预测,得出了天津市将在2011年和2015年左右发生水资源足迹下灾变,所提预测方法可为缺水地区水资源灾变预测和预防提供参考。To make prediction of water resources in advance for water-scarce regions,a regional water disaster prediction model was constructed from the perspective of water footprint（including blue water,green water and gray water）.Both top-down and bottom-up algorithms were used for the example city of Tianjin.Water footprints of Tianjin in 2000-2009 were calculated according to production（primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry） water consumption,domestic water consumption,ecological water consumption and sewage water discharge.Data of water footprints in recent years were obtained（between 6×109~8×109 m3 per year）,and based on these basic data,a high precision（yearly average relative error of 0.012 8） disaster prediction was made.The conclusion is that water footprint disaster of Tianjin would occur around 2011 and 2015.The prediction method could provide a reference to water resources disaster prediction and prevention of arid regions.

关 键 词：水资源足迹 灾变预测 虚拟水贸易 天津市 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]