山东省滨海城市入境旅游发展研究——基于GM(1,1)模型  

Study on the of Development Inbound Tourism of Coastal Cities in Shandong Province——Based on the GM(1,1) Model

作　　者：江海旭[1] 李悦铮[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029 [2]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《海洋经济》2012年第2期49-55,共7页Marine Economy

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅创新团队项目(2007T096)

摘　　要：作为区域旅游业发展研究的一项重要内容,旅游指标建模与预测研究起始于20世纪60年代,已成为旅游研究的热点之一。基于灰色系统理论,以山东省滨海7城市2000年—2009年入境旅游统计资料为原始数据,建构旅游指标GM(1,1)灰色预测动态模型并进行模型精度检验;对预测结果分析表明,模型预测结果与实际数据基本一致,进而利用该模型对山东省滨海7城市2011年—2015年入境旅游指标进行预测;最后,提出山东省滨海7城市入境旅游可持续发展对策。As an important content of regional tourism development research,the tourism index modeling and predicting research started in the 1960s,and has become one of the hot spots of tourism research.Based on the relevant inbound tourism statistics of 7 coastal cities in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2009,this paper constructed the GM(1,1)gray predictive dynamic model and carried out an accuracy test.Analyzing the predicted value,it showed that the model prediction value was basically identical with the actual data,and furthermore,the inbound tourism indexes of 7 coastal cities in Shandong Province for the next five years(from 2011 to 2015) were predicted by the model above.Finally,this paper put forward some countermeasures for the sustainable development of inbound tourism of 7 coastal cities in Shandong Province.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 入境旅游 发展研究 滨海城市 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]