住房价格应该纳入通货膨胀的统计范围吗?  

Should House Price be Included in the Scope of Inflation?

作　　者：侯成琪[1] 龚六堂[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [2]北京大学光华管理学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2012年第4期8-15,共8页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金"宏观管理与政策"(70725006);国家自然科学基金"基于期望收益率时变性和背景风险的战略资产配置理论研究"(70801046)和"部门异质性;核心通货膨胀与最优货币政策--基于多部门新凯恩斯模型的研究"(71173160)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文分别从度量生活成本和执行货币政策的角度研究住房价格是否应该纳入通货膨胀的统计范围。从度量生活成本的角度看,应该将住房价格纳入CPI的统计范围,然而本文的文献回顾表明,如何在CPI的统计框架下妥善处理住房价格仍然没有一致的结论。从执行货币政策的角度看,考虑到核心通货膨胀更适合作为货币政策的通货膨胀目标,本文研究了住房价格对核心通货膨胀的影响,发现住房价格对我国核心通货膨胀的影响微乎其微。这表明,如果稳定物价是货币政策的唯一目标,则货币政策无需考虑住房价格。然而,由于我国的货币政策需要兼顾多个目标且住房价格会显著影响产出水平,所以从稳定产出的角度看,货币政策仍须重视住房价格。This article studies whether inflation measurement should include house price.From point of view of measuring living cost,measuring CPI should include house price.However,there is no agreement on how to deal with house price in CPI.From point of view of performing monetary policy,because core inflation is a better inflation measurement for monetary policy,this article studies the influence of house price on core inflation.We find that house price has little effect on core inflation in China,so monetary policy need not respond to house price if price stabilization is the only policy target.However,price stabilization is not the only policy target and house price can significantly affect output level,so monetary policy must put emphasis on house price from viewpoint of stabilizing output.

关 键 词：住房价格 标题通货膨胀 核心通货膨胀 货币政策 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]