可公度法在嫩江流域旱涝灾害预测中的应用  

Application of Commensurability to Forecast the Flood and Draught Disasters in Nenjiang River Basin

作　　者：耿新新[1,2] 李鸿雁[1,2] 姜珊[1,2] 王傲[3] 吴亚楠[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学环境与资源学院,吉林长春130021 [2]吉林大学地下水资源与环境教育部重点实验室,吉林长春130021 [3]吉林省水文水资源局长春分局,吉林长春130021

出　　处：《人民黄河》2012年第5期34-37,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室开放研究基金资助项目(SKLHSE-2010-A-02);吉林省科技厅应用基础项目(2011-05013)

摘　　要：结合嫩江江桥断面年降水量资料,采用三元、四元和五元可公度式对大旱年和大涝年进行了预测,同时利用可公度网络结构图对嫩江流域水文情势的发展趋势进行了分析。结果表明:2012年和2025年前后嫩江流域可能发生大旱灾害,2024年、2028年和2038年前后可能发生大涝灾害;2010—2016年为嫩江流域丰水多发时段,以平水年和丰水年为主;2016—2025年为枯水和丰水多发时段的重叠时段,这一时段内水文情势发生骤变的可能性比较大;2025—2031年为枯水多发时段,以枯水年和平水年为主。Combined with annual precipitation data of Jiangqiao Station in Nenjiang River basin,this paper used commensurable method to predict disasters of flood and drought with ternary,quaternary and quintet commensurable formulations.Additionally,hydrological trend of Nenjiang River was analyzed with commensurable network diagrams.The results show that around 2012 and 2025,the drought disaster may occur in Nenjiang River basin;around 2024,2028 and 2038,the flood disaster may occur in Nenjiang River basin;from 2010 to 2016,it will be frequently occurring wet years in Nenjiang River basin,the main type will be wet and normal years;from 2016 to 2025,both low water and high water will happen frequently,it is very possible that Nenjiang＇s hydrological trend change suddenly;from 2025 to 2031,this period will be frequently occurring dry years,the main type will be dry and normal years.

关 键 词：概周期 可公度法 旱涝灾害 嫩江流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]