雪灾情形下城市交通站点负荷的动态预测模型  

Dynamic prediction model of the load of urban traffic sites during snow disaster

作　　者：魏亨武[1] 方志耕[1] 杨保华[1,2] 胡明礼[1] 孔彪[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016 [2]徐州师范大学管理学院,徐州221009

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2012年第5期1003-1009,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(90924022,70901040,70971064);教育部人文社科基金项目(10YJC630084)

摘　　要：提出了一种新的城市交通站点负荷的动态预测模型.该模型克服传统的Markov链方法的不足,考虑到乘客转移偏好的动态改变以及各交通站点之间的滞留情况会相互影响,以此构建了雪灾情形下乘客分布的极大熵模型,并进一步设计了交通站点负荷率的计算方法,推演出了雪灾后交通站点负荷的动态变化情况,为相关部门采取应对措施提供参考依据.最后用一个预测实例比较该方法与传统的Markov链方法的预测结果,结果表明该方法更优.A new dynamic prediction model of load of urban traffic sites during snow disaster is presented. The model overcomes the shortcomings of traditional Markov Chain method.Considering the dynamic changes of passengers＇ preferences and the interaction of traffic sites,the author establishes the maximum entropy model of distribution of passengers during snow disaster,and on this basis a method of calculating the load rate of traffic sites is presented,with which the dynamic changes of the load of traffic sites can be deduced.This provides a reference for the relevant departments to make response measures.Finally,a case is used to compare the method with the Markov chain method,and the result shows that the method the author presented is better.

关 键 词：雪灾 交通站点 负荷 极大熵模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]