货币政策工具类型与区域房价:调控效果的比较研究  

Different Types of Monetary Policy Tools and Regional Housing Prices:a Comparative Study on the Effects of Regulation

作　　者：杨刚[1,2] 王洪卫[2] 谢永康[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理系,浙江杭州332600 [2]上海财经大学投资系,上海200433

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2012年第5期27-34,共8页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71103121);浙江省教育厅基金资助项目(Y201121210);上海财经大学研究生创新基金资助项目(CXJJ-2011-309);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2011EJL002);上海市教委科研创新课题(12YS106)

摘　　要：通过建立状态空间模型,运用卡尔曼滤波解法,并使用系统聚类法将我国各省区按照房价高低重新划分为三个区域,比较分析了两类货币政策工具对不同区域房价的动态影响特点。实证结果表明:以M2为代表的数量工具和以利率为代表的价格工具对各区域房价的影响力都在不断扩大,但是前者的影响力显著强于后者;数量工具的"分层效应"更明显,即区域差异性更大,对房价越高的地区影响力越大。因此要根据两类货币政策工具对区域房价影响效果的特点,在不同时期按照对房地产市场调控的需要,调整和优化货币政策的工具组合,才能达到我国房地产市场的调控目标。by establishing a State--space model and applying the Caiman Filter calculation, and using system clustering method to classify China＇s provinces into 3 groups in accordance with the housing price level, so that to make a comparative analysis of effects of the two types of monetary policy tools towards different areas. The empirical results show that both the quantitative tools represented by M2 and the pricing tools represented by real rate, have increasing influence to regional housing prices, but the former influence is stronger than the latter; The regional differences of quantitative tools is much greater, which means the higher the housing prices in the region and the larger the influence will become. Therefore, according to these characteristics of the two types of monetary policy tools, we shall adjust and optimize the combination of monetary policy tools in different periods according to the requirements of the regulation of the real estate market, so that to achieve our regulation aim towards the real estate market.

关 键 词：货币政策 数量型工具 价格型工具 区域房价 状态空间模型 

分 类 号：F295.3[经济管理—国民经济]