基于B-S分布的加速退化模型  

Accelerated Degradation Models Based on B-S Distribution

作　　者：周广新[1] 郑龙[1] 朱娜[1] 王韶红[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学,长沙410073

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2012年第15期3572-3576,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

摘　　要：对长寿命高可靠性产品,加速退化方法是获取其性能退化信息的有效手段。因此,建立科学合理的加速退化模型尤为重要。分析一般退化模型的基础上,利用B-S(Birnbaum-Saunders)分布对布朗运动、几何布朗运动和Gamma过程等几种随机过程退化轨道建立形式统一的加速退化模型,并采用极大似然方法估计模型参数。最后针对某型自控温伴热电缆,利用所建模型进行加速退化分析,有效地验证了模型的正确性和合理性。Accelerated degradation method is an effective way which can get the performance degradation information of long life and high reliability products,so it is very important to build scientific and rational accelerated degradation models.A uniform accelerated degradation model based on B-S distribution is proposed for Brownian motion,geometric Brownian motion and gamma process,and estimates its parameters by MLE.Finally,a self-regulating heating cable＇s accelerated degradation data is analyzed to validate the model＇s correctness and rationality.

关 键 词：加速退化 B-S分布 布朗运动 几何布朗运动 Gamma过程 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]