我国税收与产业发展等因素的关联性研究——基于历年统计年鉴数据的VAR模型分析  

The Researching of Releation between China's Tax and China's Industry Development——Based on Statistical Yearbook Data

作　　者：乔林[1] 孔淑红[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学,北京100029

出　　处：《经济问题》2012年第6期14-18,共5页On Economic Problems

基　　金：对外经济贸易大学"行业税收政策与管理研究中心"资助项目(No.0001)

摘　　要：从改革开放后的时代大背景出发,以税收发展为主要关注点,对我国税收与产业发展、国民收入等因素之间的关联性进行研究。通过对传统经济学中的税收理论进行研究,提出了模型建立的初步思想。通过查阅相关年鉴信息,获取了研究所需的基础数据。基础数据主要包括各产业历年发展数据、税收发展历年数据、国民收入数据、CPI指数等。将上述数据进行综合处理,作为分析的基础数据。利用高级计量经济学的分析原理和方法(主要是向量自回归模型理论和格兰杰因果关系检验等理论和方法),建立基于我国国情的税收发展与产业发展等因素的关联性模型。通过对模型的分析研究,找到上述因素之间具体的关联性,从而为我国税收改革的方向和具体实施步骤提出了有参考性的意见和建议。以此实现通过税收改革,促进我国经济发展模式转型的最终目的。The article from the reform and opening up era background, with development as the main focus of tax. On China＇ s taxation and industrial development, national income and other factors to research the relationship between the. Based on the traditional economics of taxation theory, put forward the preliminary thought model. Through consulting relevant Yearbook information, obtain required for research based data. Basic data including - each industry over the development data, the development of tax revenue data over the years, national income data, CPI index. The above data, as the analysis is based on data. Using advanced econometrics analysis principles and methods （primarily the vector autoregressive model theory and Granger causality test theory and method ）. Based on the situation of our country＇ s tax development and industry development factors correlation model. By analyzing the model, find the factors between specific relevance, so as to China＇ s tax reform direction and the specific imple- mentation steps are proposed for reference opinions and suggestions. In order to achieve through tax reform, pro- mote China＇ s economic development mode transformation goal.

关 键 词：税收 产业 收入 

分 类 号：F810.42[经济管理—财政学]