GM(1,1)在工业固体废物产生量预测中的应用  

Application of GM(1,1) in Forecasting Quantity of Industrial Solid Waste

作　　者：邓琪[1] 王琪[2] 黄启飞[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学,北京100084 [2]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2012年第6期180-183,共4页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：十一五"国家科技攻关项目(2006BAC02A19)

摘　　要：工业固体废物产生量预测是废物资源优化管理与合理配置的重要前提。为有效预测城市工业固体废物的产生量,客观反映其变化趋势,选择GM(1,1)预测方法建立工业固体废物产生量预测模型。文章以某市2006-2009年的工业固体废物产生量为基础,通过实例对模型精度进行分析比较。研究结果表明:对基本符合线性关系的数据而言,预测值与实际结果具有良好的一致性,模拟精度等级为"好"。在此基础上对该市未来近几年的工业固体废物产生量进行预测研究,发现该市工业固体废物产生量增长速度过快,到2016年全市工业固体废物年产量将高达2 408.25万t,是2006年的5.3倍。研究证明灰色GM(1,1)模型是一个预测工业固体废物产生量的较好工具,其预测结果可为政府部门和环境管理者提供决策参考。Quantity forecasting of industrial solid waste is the important premise for optimizing management and allocation of waste resource. To efficiently forecast the quantity of municipal industriai soI＇id waste and objectively reflect its development trend, the quantity forecasting model of industrial solid waste was established by selecting GM （1, 1）. Based on quantity of industrial solid waste in a city during 2006-2009, the model accuracy was analyzed through the examples. Results showed that for the data conforming to the linear relationship, the forecasted values and actual results had good uniformity, with good simulation precision. On this basis, the quantity of industrial solid waste generation in this city in the following years was studied. It was found that the industrial solid waste generation grows too fast, by 2016 it will reach 24.0825 million tons per year, 5.3 times of that of 2006. The grey model GM （1, 1） is a good tool to predict the quantity of industrial solid waste generation, whose results can provide helpful reference for decision-making by the government and environment managers.

关 键 词：工业固体废物 GM(1 1) 预测 

分 类 号：X825[环境科学与工程—环境工程]