Climate warming and sea level rise  

气候变暖与海平面上升(英文)

作　　者：岳军[1,2,3] Dong YUE 吴桑云[5] 耿秀山[5] 赵长荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津市海洋地质勘查中心,天津300170 [2]国土资源部天津地质矿产研究所,天津300170 [3]天津华北地质勘查局地质研究所,天津300170 [4]University of Texas at San Antonio(Texas 78249-1644 USA) [5]国家海洋局第一海洋研究所,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《Marine Science Bulletin》2012年第1期28-41,共14页海洋通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40940025);Natural Science Fund of Tianjin (No.07ZCGYSF02400 and 09JCYBJC07400);National ‘973’ Project (No.2007CB411807);State Oceanic Administration of the marine atmosphere-Chemistry and global change open fund of Key Laboratory (No.GCMAC0806);the National Natural Science Fund(No.41006002)

摘　　要：Based on a large number of actual data, the author believe that the modem global warming and sea level rise resulted from climate warming after the cold front of the Little Ice Age about 200 years ago and the developmnet of the sea level rise phase. In the past 30 years, the rate of sea level rise was increasing, which is under the background of the average temperature uplift 0.2F°（0.11℃）every 10 years in succession from the 1980s to the past 10 years this century. On the basis of the absolute and relative sea-level rise rate that was calculated from the tidal data during the same period at home and abroad in the last 30 years, in accordance with the resolutions of the 2010 climate conference in Cancun, at the same time, considering the previous prediction and research, the world＇s sea levels and the relative sea level in Tianjin, Shanghai, Dongying, Xiamen, Haikou and other coastal cities that have severe land subsidence in 2050 and 2100 are calculated and evaluated.本文通过大量实际资料分析认为,现代全球变暖与海平面上升,源于200多年前小冰期冷峰出现后的气候返暖、海平面回升过程演变的结果。近30年的世界海平面上升的速率,有着上世纪80、90年代和本世纪前10年世界平均气温每10年以0.2F°(0.11 °C)为梯度的连续抬升为背景。在此以CO2含量为气候指标,划分出了公元200年以来的八个暖段(暖期)。若按冷暖极值距200年或250年计算,则由目前正在发展的暖期,将在公元2050年或2100年前后结束,而后开始降温。作者依据最近30年同一时段国内外验潮资料计算获得的绝对海平面升降速率为﹢1.52 ± 0.27mm/a 及相对海平面升降速率为+1.39 ± 0.26 mm/a。按照2010年坎昆气候大会决议要求,在对前人有关研究成果进行考量时,对将来的2050和2100年世界海平面预测及我国地面沉降较明显的沿海城市如天津、上海、厦门、海口等相对海平面升降值,进行了测算与评估。

关 键 词：global warming sea level rise RATE PREDICTION EVALUATION 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P731.23