建筑地基沉降预测的灰色模型与Asaoka法  

Grey model and Asaoka method in the forecast of architecture groundsill settlement

作　　者：郭峥英[1] 陈鹏宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南城市学院建筑与城市规划学院,湖南益阳413000 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《工程勘察》2012年第6期67-70,共4页Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying

摘　　要：在众多的建筑地基沉降预测模型中,Asaoka公式参数意义明确,在实际工程中得到了广泛应用,但是其存在局限性。根据灰色模型理论与Asaoka法一阶微分方程的一致性,通过构建满足白指数率预测无偏性的变权灰色预测模型,避免了Asaoka法应用的局限性。实例应用结果显示,变权灰色预测模型提高了预测精度,对非等时距沉降序列的分析预测具有更高的应用价值。Asaoka formula is one of the most significant models in the forecast of architecture groundsill settlement, the parameters of which have explicit meaning and it is applied in the actual engineering widely. However, there are some limitations when Asaoka method is applied in practice. Thus, according to the equivalence between the first-order differential equation of grey model and Asaoka method, a variable weighted grey prediction model is proposed in this paper which might avoid these limitations. For a case study, test results show that the variable weighted grey prediction model can improve the forecasting precision. Thus it is more useful for analysis and prediction of non-equal settlement sequence.

关 键 词：沉降预测 灰色预测模型 ASAOKA法 权值 

分 类 号：O141.4[理学—数学]