多源不确定性因素下两阶段动态供应链的风险绩效  

Risk performance of two-stage dynamic supply chain under multi-uncertainty

作　　者：马建华[1] 艾兴政[1] 唐小我[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,成都610054

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2012年第6期1222-1231,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(70932005);国家自然科学基金(70772070)

摘　　要：针对多源风险环境下供应链的产能决策和订货决策问题,通过构建制造商与零售商在不同成本风险和需求风险环境下产能与订货两阶段动态决策模型,揭示了多源不确定风险与供应链运作绩效关系,风险源的影响条件和影响强度.最后通过数值分析得到比较直观的结论和管理启示.Focusing on capacity decision and order decision of supply chain under multi-risk environment, this paper constructs a two-stage dynamic model under which the manufacturer and the retailer should make decision under different cost risks and demand risk environment.We reveal the relation of the supply chain operational performance and the multi-risk,the conditions under which the risks will impact the operational performance as well as the intensity of the impact.At last,the intuitionistic conclusions and managerial enlightenment are obtained by numerical analysis.

关 键 词：动态供应链 多源风险 产能决策 

分 类 号：F273[经济管理—企业管理]