中国低碳城市发展影响因素分析  

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Low-carbon City Development in China

作　　者：路超君[1,2] 秦耀辰[1] 罗宏[2] 张丽君[1] 张艳[1] 鲁丰先[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心/环境与规划学院,河南开封475004 [2]中国环境科学研究院能源与环境研究室,北京100012

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2012年第6期57-62,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"城市居民碳排放的因素-结构-过程模拟与调控研究"(编号:41171438);国家重大科学研究计划项目"气候变化经济学的复杂性机制;新型集成评估模型簇与政策模拟平台研发"(编号:2012CB955800);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"黄河中下游地区低碳经济发展的机理与路径研究"(编号:10JJDZONGHE015)

摘　　要：目前,全国各地都在开展低碳城市建设,但是由于对"低碳城市"认识的不一致,导致了各地建设水平参差不齐。本文根据低碳城市的内涵和特点,识别出19个影响我国低碳城市发展的因素,分别从城市主体水平、发展结构水平和管理水平等角度进行分类说明。通过专家咨询法和建立解释结构模型(ISM),绘制出多级递阶结构图,理顺各因素间的结构关系,阐明了影响因素间内在关联性和层次性。研究结果显示,19个影响因素分为5个层次,其中政府和低碳城市标准位于最高层次,碳排放统计次之,它们是影响我国低碳城市发展的关键因素,并对其余因素产生直接或间接的影响作用。建议现阶段在推进我国低碳城市建设过程中,根据多级递阶结构图所示,采取"自上而下"的模式。当务之急,国家应尽快制定出台《低碳城市标准》,加快开展城市碳排放统计工作,而政府作为城市主体之一,是低碳城市建设的主要推动者和政策供给者,应充分发挥其领导力,使低碳城市建设走上系统化、制度化轨道。The construction of low-carbon city is in progress all over China these days. However, the level of development is varied due to different understandings of the meaning of “low-carbon city”. According to the concept and the characteristic of the low-carbon city, 19 factors influencing the development of low-carbon city in China were recognized from different aspects： the level of the principal part of the city, level of urban development structure and level of urban management. By using the Delphi method and interpretative structural modeling（ ISM）, the structure and the inherent links among factors were sort out with the hierarchical structure diagram. The result showed that the inherent links among these 19 factors were analyzed and described in five levels. The factors on the top of the graph included “government” and “low-carbon city criteria”. The factor“carbon emission statistical service” took second place. These three factors were the critical ones which affected the others directly or indirectly. Based on the result, the priority of low- carbon city construction in China is proposed as follows： “top-down” mode should be adopted according to the hierarchical structure diagram. Low-carbon city criteria should be set and the city＇s carbon emission statistical service should be launched as soon as possible. As the main body of the city, government was the main impeller and policy provider, and should give into full play its function to make sure that China＇s low-carbon city will develop in the way of systematization and institutionalization.

关 键 词：低碳城市 影响因素 解释结构模型 政府领导力 低碳城市标准 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]