基于SARIMA模型的汶川大地震对四川省旅游业影响研究  

The Studies of the Impact of the Wenchuan Earthquake on Tourism in Sichuan,China:Based on SARIMA Model

作　　者：吴良平[1] 张健[1] 王汝辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川师范大学可视化计算与虚拟现实四川省重点实验室数学与软件科学学院,四川成都610068 [2]四川师范大学历史与旅游学院,四川成都610068

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2012年第3期56-60,86,共6页Tourism Forum

基　　金：可视化计算与虚拟现实四川省重点实验室资助项目(J2010N10)

摘　　要：通过汶川大地震前四川省旅游业数据建立SARIMA模型,预测了四川省旅游业6项主要指标,经震后实际值与预测值比较,定量分析汶川大地震等对四川省旅游业的影响程度和影响时滞。研究发现:截至2010年4月,国内旅游已波动式恢复至预测水平,入境旅游还将继续受地震影响,但入境旅游将不会影响到四川省旅游业波动式恢复至预测水平的趋势,并且四川省旅游业受地震等影响的滞后经济损失已超过了受地震等影响的直接经济损失。This article established SARIMA model through the Sichuan province tourism data before the Wenchuan earthquake, forecasts the Sichuan tourism six major index and made a quantitative analysis of the degree time lag of the impacts of the Wen- chuan Earthquake on Sichuan Province tourism through comparison of actual and predicted values after the earthquake. We have found that domestic travel has wavily recovered to the forecast level, while the inbound tourism continue to be affected by the earthquake, but The inbound tourism will not affect the trend that the Sichuan province tourism wavily recovering to the forecast level, And the lagged economic losses of the tourism industry in Sichuan Province affected by the earthquake have been more than the direct economic losses affected by the earthquake until April, 2010.

关 键 词：SARIMA模型 汶川大地震 四川省旅游业 影响研究 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]