R&D项目投资风险预警控制模型与实证研究  

Model of Risk Forewarning Control of R&D Investment Projects and Empirical Study in Chinese construction enterprises

作　　者：盛淑凯[1] 刘宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学土木建筑学院,安徽淮南232001 [2]北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京100085

出　　处：《科技与经济》2012年第3期71-75,共5页Science & Technology and Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金--"制造业产业集群知识服务体系建设研究"(项目编号:71073012项目负责人:刘宇)成果之一;安徽省高校自然科学研究项目--"创新型产业的判断理论与方法研究"(项目编号:KJ2011Z111项目负责人:盛淑凯)成果之一

摘　　要：中国加入WTO后,企业为获得更高的市场竞争能力,急需通过R&D活动来提高其技术水平。随着产业技术创新动力机制模式和创新政策的完善,企业R&D投入必将大幅增加。企业R&D活动存在大量不确定性,尤其是技术的外部性极有可能导致其R&D投资失败。因此企业需要对R&D项目投资风险进行预警控制。在定量测量企业R&D项目投资风险的基础上,利用系统独立性原理和休哈特控制图建立预警控制界限,事前判断企业多R&D项目投资风险值是否受控;并采用时间回归方法判断企业决策者的心理趋势是否有变动;最后以某企业为案例验证了该方法的有效性。After the entry of WTO, enterprises acutely need to improve the technology level through R＆D activities for the market competitive ability. With the perfection of the mode of technology innovation dynamic mechanism and policy in the industry, its enter- prises will add the input of R＆D extremely. Because of the uncertainties of R＆D activity in enterprises, especially the character of eas- y-used of construction technology, the investment of R＆D is extremely likely to fail. So, the enterprises need to forewarn the risk of R＆D investment projects. This paper prescribes the risk measurement of R＆D investment projects in enterprises and builds the forewar- ning limitation based on the principle of system dependence and Shewhart control charts to warn the fluctuation of risk values of R＆D investment projects in enterprises early. Then the mental trend of decision-makers in enterprises is correctly judged by the method of time series regression. In the last, the validity of the model is proved by a case.

关 键 词：R&D 风险预警 时间序列回归判别 

分 类 号：F273.1[经济管理—企业管理]