基于D-S证据理论的水利工程招标评价  

Evaluation of hydraulic project tender by D-S evidence theory

作　　者：陈广洲[1] 汪家权[2] 李如忠[2] 胡淑恒[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑工业学院环境工程系,合肥230022 [2]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,合肥230009

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2012年第3期263-266,共4页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50379003);高等学校优秀青年人才基金项目(2010SQRL090);安徽省高校自然科学基金项目(KJ2010B48);安徽省自然科学基金项目(070416243)

摘　　要：如何从多个水利工程招标方案中选取最佳方案是决策者需要面临的一个难题。针对上述多属性决策问题,选取某实例,首先采用投影寻踪模型将其降维转化为一维问题决策,获得指标的客观权重;随后,采用德尔菲法,获取指标的主观权重。为有效地合成主、客观权重,采用D-S证据理论进行权重合成得到更为合理的指标权重,进行方案的最终优选排序,并与其它评价方法进行了比较。结果表明:本文方法能有效地利用主、客观信息,所得的结果更为科学、合理,从而提高了评标工作的科学性。How to select the best project from many tender projects of hydraulic engineering is an issue that decision makers must face.Aiming at such a multi-attribute decision-making problem,this paper presents a new combined weight method.We apply a projection pursuit method to a test case to transform the problem into an one-dimensional one,obtain the objective weight of each index and use Delphi method and expert knowledge to find the subjective weights of indexes.Then D-S evidence theory is used to synthesize the subjective and objective weights effectively and a priority of the tender projects are sorted according to their combined weights.Finally,comparison with other assessment methods is used to verify the method.Results indicate that the method can make a more effective use of subjective and objective information and improve fairness of tender project decision-making.

关 键 词：水利工程管理 组合权重 D-S证据理论 投影寻踪 综合评价 

分 类 号：TV511[水利工程—水利水电工程]