河南省农用地生产能力核算最佳模型选择研究  

The Optimal Model for Estimating Agricultural Land Productivity in Henan Province

作　　者：宋艳华[1] 王令超[1] 王国强[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南省科学院地理研究所,河南郑州450052

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2012年第5期50-56,F0003,共8页China Land Science

摘　　要：研究目的:选择河南省农用地生产能力核算的最佳模型类型。研究方法:数据综合法、统计检验法、外延趋势分析法。研究结果:(1)河南省可实现单产调查样点与农用地利用等指数之间的关系并不是目前多数省份采用的线性关系。(2)通过对指数、对数、乘幂、一元二次多项式和线性5种类型模型模拟效率的统计检验和外延性检验发现,一元二次多项式模型更适合河南省农用地生产能力核算。(3)通过验证,一元二次多项式模型的模拟结果数值可信,空间分布规律符合河南省实际。研究结论:农用地生产能力核算模型的选择要建立在对调查数据分布规律探索的基础上,并结合研究区域及模型特点来确定。The purpose of this study is to select the most proper model for estimating the agricultural land productivity in Henan province. Methods of data integration, statistics test, and extension trend analysis were used. The results indicate that the relationship between the accessible grain productivity per unit samples of Henan province and their agricultural land use index is not a linear one. The statistics test and the extension trend of different models （e.g., second-order polynomial model, exponential model, logarithmic model, power model, and linear model） indicate that the second-order polynomial model is the most proper one for Henan province. We also found that the estimation result of the model was reliable regarding model test and the spatial distribution in reality. The paper concludes that the optimal model for productivity estimation must be based on the spatial distribution of the survey data, the practical condition of the research area, and the characteristics of the model.

关 键 词：土地管理 农用地 生产能力核算 模型 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]