用树木年轮重建阿勒泰东部6—7月平均温度序列  

Tree-ring Reconstruction of Mean June-July Temperature during 1613-2006 in East Altay,Xinjiang of China

作　　者：胡义成[1,2,3,4] 袁玉江[1,2,3] 魏文寿[1,2,3,5] 张瑞波[1,2,3] 张同文[1,2,3] 尚华明[1,2,3] 陈峰[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所 [2]新疆树木年轮生态实验室 [3]中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室 [4]新疆气象信息中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [5]新疆维吾尔自治区气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2012年第4期1003-1009,共7页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40975056;41071072);科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106013;GYHY200806011;GY-HY201206014);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费(IDM200801);中国沙漠气象科学研究基金项目(Sqj2009010);新疆维吾尔自治区树木年轮生态重点实验室开放课题(XJYS0911-2009-03)共同资助

摘　　要：利用采自阿勒泰中东部地区8个树轮采样点的西伯利亚落叶松树轮资料,建立宽度年表。分析这些年表与气候要素的相关性发现,标准化年表序列与该地区青河气象站6—7月的月平均气温存在显著的正相关关系,最高单相关为卓勒萨依ZLS年表,相关系数为0.555(P<0.0001),且具有明显的树木生理学意义。用卓勒萨依t和卓勒萨依t+3两个树轮标准化年表序列,可较好地重建该地区过去394a来6—7月月平均气温序列,交叉检验表明,重建方程稳定可靠。分析发现,阿勒泰东部地区394a来的气温重建序列具有7个偏冷和7个偏暖阶段,和2.7～3.7a,43.7a,52.4a的显著冷暖变化准周期。月平均气温重建序列存在10个突变点,其中在1669年,1714年,1762年,1802年和1939年前后为初夏月平均气温由低向高突变,而在1691年,1732年,1781年,1919年和1963年前后是自高温向低温突变。Eight tree-ring width chronologies have been set up based on the tree-ring samples of Larix sibirica Ledeb.collected from the eastern Altay region,northern Xinjiang of China.The correlation analysis showed that there are significant correlation between tree-ring width chronologies and mean temperature in period of June to July at Qinghe Weather Station,and the correlation coefficient between Zhuolesayi tree-ring chronology and the mean temperature is the largest（0.555,P0.0001）.The mean June July temperature during 1613-2006 in the eastern Altay region can be better reconstructed by using Zhuolesayi t and Zhuolesayi t＋3 tree-ring standardized chronologies.Cross validation test proved that the reconstruction functions are stable and reliable.The reconstructed series suggested that：（1） The variation of mean June July temperature in eastern Altay region had seven warm stages and seven cold stages in these 394 years.（2） The change of mean June July temperature existed significantly quasi-periodic change of 2.7~3.7 years,43.7 years and 52.4 years.（3） The reconstructed series showed 10 abrupt changes in 1669,1691,1714,1732,1762,1781,1802,1919,1939 and 1963.

关 键 词：树轮宽度年表 西伯利亚落叶松 气温重建 新疆 阿勒泰 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]