高等教育-人口-经济系统协调发展定量分析  

Quantitative Analysis on Coordinated Development of Higher Education-Population-Economy System

作　　者：马鹏媛[1] 米红[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学教育研究院,博士研究生福建厦门361005 [2]浙江大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310058 [3]厦门大学高等教育发展研究中心

出　　处：《中国高教研究》2012年第7期1-6,共6页China Higher Education Research

基　　金：教育部人文社科重大课题“非传统安全威胁的能力建设”(课题编号:08JZD0021)的研究成果

摘　　要：通过构建高等教育-人口-经济系统协调发展评价的指标体系,选取全国31个省市自治区2005年和2010年的截面数据,采用主成分分析、有序度、协调度模型测算等方法,着重从发展水平、单个系统有序度及系统间协调度三个维度进行定量分析。结果表明:区域高等教育发展差异显著,高等教育、经济系统的发展水平相对高于人口系统;各系统的整体有序度略有提升,经济系统有序度最高,高等教育次之,人口系统最低;区域三系统间的协调度差距悬殊,高等教育-经济系统的协调度明显高于高等教育-人口系统的协调度。建议从高等教育与经济、高等教育与人口及高等教育-人口-经济系统的协调演化三方面考虑消除不协调因素,促进高等教育与人口、经济的良性循环和协调发展。By constructing the evaluation index system and selecting the cross-sectional data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in 2005 and 2010, using methods of principal component analysis, order degree and coordination degree model, a quantitative analysis on coordinating development of higher education-populationeconomic system was conducted from the views of developing level, order degree in a single system and coordinating degree between systems. The research shows that regional higher education development is significantly different, the development level of the higher education system and economic system is relatively better than the population system. Each system＇s order degree has been slightly improved. The economic system＇s order degree is the highest, followed by higher education system, and then the population system. Coordinating degree of the region among three systems is significantly different, higher education-economic system＇s coordinating degree is significantly higher than higher educationpopulation system＇s. For promoting a virtuous cycle and coordinating development of higher education, population and economy, inconsistent factors should be considered to eliminate from the coordination evolution of higher education and economy, higher education and population and higher education-population-economy system.

关 键 词：高等教育-人口-经济系统 有序度 协调度 协调演化 

分 类 号：G640[文化科学—高等教育学]