北京市MSM人群RRT模型的两阶段抽样调查  

The Survey among MSM Population in Beijing Using Two-Stage Sampling Method on RRT Model

作　　者：于波[1,2] 高歌[1] 贺志龙[1] 李旭东[1] 于明润[1] 阮玉华 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学医学部公共卫生学院,215123 [2]德州学院数学系,253023 [3]中国CDC性病艾滋病预防控制中心,100050

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2012年第3期351-353,共3页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(30972548)

摘　　要：目的调查估计北京市MSM人群男男性行为中安全套的破损比例,HIV阳性率等指标,为制定北京市艾滋病的预防控制规划、措施提供科学依据。方法采用多分类敏感问题随机应答模型两阶段随机抽样的调查分析方法估计出北京市MSM人群肛交中安全套的破损比例、HIV病毒检测的阳性比例等多项涉及个人隐私的敏感性问题指标。结果北京市MSM人群:男男性行为时安全套有破损、无破损、没有使用安全套的比例分别是12.462%,67.77%,19.77%;最近一年HIV检测的结果为阳性、阴性、检查过但不知道结果、结果不确定、没有检查过的比例分别是8.03%,72.44%,8.28%,5.21%,6.05%。结论本文采用多分类敏感问题随机应答模型两阶段抽样的调查方法及其统计公式,取得了良好的实际应用效果。北京市MSM人群HIV阳性率高,并存在安全套破损比例高的高危性行为,应引起政府、卫生部门的高度重视。Objective To estimate the rate of condom break- age, and positive of HIV testing result among the MSM of the city of Bei- jing,which provides the scientific basis to make the methods and measure of prevention and govern of HIV. Methods The method of two-stage sampling on RRT for sensitive questions survey with multiple choices and corresponding formulas were applied, and scientifically estimated several in- dicators of the sensitive issue which referred to the personal privacy among the MSM of the city of Beijing, such as the rate of breakage, positive of HIV testing result. Results Among MSM population of the city of Bei- jing, the rate of condom breakage, no breakage and no using during sexual intercourse among the MSM population of the city of Beijing were 12. 4620% ,67. 7727%, 19. 7653% respectively. In the recently one year, the rate of the positive, negative during the HIV testing, unknowing the re- suit, no sure results after checking and no checking were 8. 0272%, 72. 4350% ,8.2792% ,5.2110% ,6. 0476%, respectively. Conclusion The method of two-stage sampling on RRT for sensitive questions survey with multiple choices and corresponding formulas which we applied in this paper had achieved good effective in practical applications. The rate of HIV intervention among MSM population in the city of Beijing was high. There were some sexual behaviors with high risk such as the rate of condom breakage, which should be highly valued by the government and public health departments.

关 键 词：多分类敏感问题 随机应答技术 两阶段抽样 男男性行为HIV 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]