南北地震带强震主体活动区现象及未来趋势分析  

Phenomenon of main strong activity area in North-South seismic belt and the future trend

作　　者：姚玉霞 王建荣 马凤珍[3] 马海霞[3] 

机构地区：[1]平凉中心地震台,中国甘肃744000 [2]天水市地震局,中国甘肃741020 [3]甘肃有色地质勘查局天水总队,中国甘肃741025

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》2012年第3期37-40,共4页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

摘　　要：通过分析我国南北地震带(以下简称南北带)有仪器记录以来发生的大震后,发现存在约10年主体大震活动区,并自北而南有4次转移图像;同时对汶川8级大震前后的震情活动进行分析,认为未来10年南北带北段及以西地区将进入活跃期,很有可能发生多次7级以上地震,但也可能南移;未来几年四川地区可能再次发生大震,甘肃东南部地区有可能发生6级以上地震。By analyzing the strong earthquakes in North-South seismic belt of China （hereinafter referred to as the North-South zone） since the reliable instrumental records available, it was found that there is a main activity area of about 10 years, and four times of transforming images from north to south. Mean while, the analysis on Wenchuan M 8 earthquake suggests that a active seismic period will develop in the nortern ssegment of North and South zone and its weste area in further l0 years, earthquakes with magnitude 7 may occure, or migrate to south. The analysis also suggests that strong earthquakes may again hit Sichuan area, or earthquakes with magnitude more than 7 oeeure in southeast of Gansu.

关 键 词：汶川8级地震 主体大震再次活跃 南北带地震迁移呼应 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]