辽宁葫芦岛1～10d雷暴天气预报方法  

Study on Thunderstorm Forecast in 10 Days in Huludao of Liaoning Province

作　　者：秦春明[1,2] 尚可政[1] 王式功[1] 李艳[1] 杨德保[1] 陈亿[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室 [2]95356部队

出　　处：《干旱气象》2012年第2期192-201,共10页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41075103);国家行业专项项目(GYHY201106034;GYHY201006023);国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC53B02);中科院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLCS 2011-09);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(lzujbky-2012-122)共同资助

摘　　要：利用葫芦岛附近4个站点(兴城、绥中、建昌和锦州)2000～2009年的雷暴观测资料分析了该地区雷暴的气候特征;结合雷暴发生时的高空图,对雷暴发生的天气形势进行了划分;在天气分型的基础上,利用数值预报产品计算了与雷暴相关的物理量,作为雷暴预报的进一步判别指标,得到了葫芦岛1～10 d雷暴预报方法。结果表明:1)发现雷暴主要出现在5～9月,占全年雷暴日数的91.3%;2)雷暴发生的天气形势划分为4种类型:高空槽型、高空冷涡型、西北气流型和副高边缘型;3)运用天气分型和物理量指标叠加,可起到双重消空作用,提高预报准确率,降低空报率;4)预报结果检验显示,24～72 h预报,TS评分在50.00%～88.89%之间,空报率在37.50%以下,漏报率在28.57%以下;96～168 h预报,TS评分在43.48%～83.33%之间,空报率在52.38%以下,漏报率在33.33%以下;192～240 h预报,TS评分在39.13%～82.61%之间,空报率在52.38%以下,漏报率在37.50%以下。By using the thunderstorm data of 4 stations （Xingcheng, Suizhong, Jianchang, Jinzhou） near Huludao of Liaoning Province during 2000 - 2009, the climate characteristics of thunderstorm were analyzed in this paper. Results show that thunderstorm mainly occurred in May to September and accounted for 91.3% of the total number of thunderstorms in a year, The synoptic situation of thunderstorm can be divided into four kinds ： upper trough, upper - level cold vortex, northwest airflow and edge of subtropical high. Further more, a thunderstorm forecasting method in 10 days for Huludao region was given by using the physical indexes calculated from T213 products. By overlapping synoptic patterns and physical index, the accuracy of thunderstorm forecast increased and missing or wrong report rate decreased. In 24 -72 hours, the threat score is between 50.00% and 88.89% , the wrong report rate is below 37.50% and the missing report rate is below 28.57%. In 96 - 168 hours, the threat score ranged from 43.48% to 83.33% , the wrong report rate is below 52.38% , and missing report rate is below 33.33%. In 192 -240 hours, the threat score is between 39.13% and 82.61% , the wrong report rate is below 52.38% , and missing report rate is below 37.50%. So the method can be used to forecast thunderstorm in Huludao region.

关 键 词：1~10d 雷暴 T213 天气分型 指标叠加 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]