甲型H1N1流感的死亡率高吗——Bayes计量分析框架下的建模与估算  

Does Pandemic Influenza HlNl Has a High Mortality Rate—An Analysis of Modeling and Estimation in Bayesian Econometrics Framework

作　　者：段鹏[1] 吴亚平[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行武汉分行,湖北武汉430071 [2]江汉大学数计学院,湖北武汉430056

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2012年第4期595-604,共10页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

摘　　要：在全球甲型H1N1流感大流行背景下,本文在充分考虑各国甲流感死亡率可能存在个体混合效应、独立效应、相关效应及空间相关效应基础上,运用Bayes计量分析框架下的模型选择标准确定描述各国甲流感死亡率的最优模型,并基于该模型对不同国家甲流感死亡率进行估算。结果显示:个体独立、空间相关效应模型能很好拟合各国甲流感疫情统计数据,利用该模型估算的全球甲流感平均死亡率为0.577%。In the context of the population of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 in the world, we think of the possible mixed effects, independent effects, correlated effects and spatial correlated effects of the mortality rates of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 in different countries. Using the model choice methods in Bayesian econometrics, we decide the most appropriate model to discribe the mortality rates of different countries. Base on the model, we estimate the mortality rates of different countris. The result reveals that： the individual independent and spatial correlated effects model can best fit the sample data, and the estimated average mortality rate of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 in the world is 0.577%.

关 键 词：甲型H1N1流感 死亡率 模型选择 估算 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计] C812[理学—数学]