Delphi法在构建区域性大型活动卫生保障综合性风险评价指标体系中的应用  

Application of Delphi method in establishing comprehensive risk assessment index system for health security of regional large-scale activities

作　　者：郝东平[1] 谈立峰[1] 孙樨陵 管新亚 冯国柱[1] 严旭东[1] 段晋人 蔡军[1] 韦明[1] 沈月平[2] 汤在祥[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省常州市卫生监督所,213003 [2]苏州大学

出　　处：《职业与健康》2012年第11期1298-1303,共6页Occupation and Health

基　　金：常州市科技局立项项目(项目编号:CS20109006);常州市卫生局资助重大科技项目(项目编号:ZD2010015)

摘　　要：目的探讨建立区域性大型活动卫生保障餐饮安全、公共场所、饮用水卫生综合性风险评价指标体系,为开展区域性大型活动卫生保障工作提供科学依据。方法选择30名专家进行两轮Delphi专家咨询,根据指标重要性赋值得分,确定餐饮安全、公共场所、饮用水卫生综合性风险评价的指标及其权重。结果 30名咨询专家的平均工龄为(20.63±5.80)a,两轮的应答率均为100%,权威系数分别为0.86±0.06、0.89±0.06,Kendall协调系数分别为0.807(χ2=1 858.758,P<0.01)、0.869(χ2=2 018.723,P<0.01),确定了餐饮安全、公共场所、饮用水卫生综合性风险评价指标一级指标3项,二级指标13项,三级指标54项,以及各项指标的权重。其中餐饮安全的二级指标5项,三级指标22项;公共场所的二级指标5项、三级指标22项;饮用水卫生的二级指标3项,三级指标10项。餐饮安全、公共场所、饮用水卫生的平均权重分别为5.37,2.54,2.09。结论 Delphi专家咨询法是构建区域性大型活动卫生保障餐饮安全、公共场所、饮用水卫生综合性风险评价指标体系的有效方法,并将为进一步建立风险评价方法奠定基础。[Objective]To discuss the establishment of comprehensive risk assessment index system for catering food safety,public places and drinking water sanitary during the regional large-scale activities,and provide scientific evidence for its health security.[Methods]A 2-round Delphi consultation was held to choose suitable indicators and their weights of the comprehensive risk assessment for catering food safety,public places and drinking water sanitary during the regional large-scale activities by 30 experts.The suitable indicators were selected according to the importance recognized by the experts.[Results] The average length of service of the 30 experts was（20.63±5.80） years.And the response rates of the 2-round consultation from the experts were both 100%,the average coefficient of experts＇ authorities were 0.86±0.06 and 0.89±0.06 respectively.And Kendall＇ s coefficient were 0.807（χ2=1 858.758,P0.01）and 0.869（χ2=2 018.723,P0.01） respectively.Three first-class indicators,13 second-class indicators and 54 third-class indicators for comprehensive risk assessment of catering food safety,public places and drinking water sanitary were identified.And the weight of the indicator was established.Among which,5 second-class indicators and 22 third-class indicators for food safety,5 second-class indicators and 22 third-class indicators for public places and 3 second-class indicators and 10 third-class indicators for drinking water sanitary were identified.Moreover,the average weight of catering food safety,public places and drinking water sanitary were 5.37,2.54 and 2.09,respectively.[Conclusion]Delphi method is an effective method to establish the comprehensive risk assessment index system for catering food safety,public places and drinking water sanitary during the regional large-scale activities.Furthermore,it will lay the foundation of the establishment of comprehensive risk assessment method

关 键 词：DELPHI法 区域性大型活动 卫生保障 餐饮安全 公共场所卫生 饮用水卫生 综合性风险评价指标 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]