最优气候值方法在中国的应用  

LONG-LEAD PERIODICAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PREDICTION IN CHINA USING OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS

作　　者：郭勇苍 黄嘉佑[1] 黄茂怡[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学地球物理系,北京100871

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2000年第A06期87-92,共6页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家"九五"重中之重科技项目!"我国短期气候预测系统的研究"96-908-04-01-3专题资助

摘　　要：该文用最优气候值方法研究了 1 951～ 1 998年中国 1 60个站点季、月的气温和降水 .结果表明 ,在中国最优气候值方法对气温具有相当的可用性 ,尤其是对冬季气温有很好的预报效果 ;对于降水 ,只对个别时间段的个别地区有一定的可用性 .对季的预报好于对月的预报 .无论是预报值与观测值的相关系数还是最优气候值的平均年份数在每一固定时期内都呈现出有规则的连续性空间分布 。By using optimal climate normals, the seasonal and monthly temperature and precipitation data of 160 Chinese meteorological stations during the period of 1995-1998 are examined. Results show that optimal climate nomals method performs well in temperature prediction, especially for winter. However, it is applicable only in certain areas and certain time periods in precipitation prediction. The performance of the seasonal forecasts is better than that of the monthly ones. Both the correlation coefficients between predicted and observed values and the average of the optimal climate normals are spatially continuous,and their distributions change with the time.

关 键 词：最优气候值 平均年份数 相关系数 气温预报 

分 类 号：P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]