基于费歇判别分析的企业财务困境预警研究  

Research on Corporate Financial Distress Warning Based on Fisher Discriminant Analysis

作　　者：许存兴[1] 

机构地区：[1]渭南师范学院经济与管理学院,陕西渭南714000

出　　处：《贵州大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第3期136-140,共5页Journal of Guizhou University:Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家统计局项目(2010LB03);陕西省教育厅2012年科学研究项目(12JK0061)

摘　　要：选取2011年127家ST公司为财务困境公司,并对每个困境公司进行配对,利用财务困境公司和非财务困境公司T-2年现金流量数据,在费歇判别分析基础上,利用现金与总资产比率、每股收益增长率、净资产增长率、每股经营现金净流量和净利润现金含量5个现金流指标构建现金流量财务困境预警模型,模型整体判别准确率为88.2%.最后,通过ROC曲线对模型判别结果进行检验。127 ST companies in 2011 were selected as the financial distress companies, and each firm is found its pair. Making use of the cash flow data of the financial distress firms and non-financial distress firms in T-2 year, based on the Fisher discriminant analysis, the five cash flow indicators （ Cash to total assets ratio, Earnings per share growth, the growth rate of net assets, Net operating cash flow per share, Net profit in cash content） was used to build cash flow of financial distress warning model. The model discrimination accuracy is 88.2%. Finally, the results of model discrimination were tested through the ROC curve.

关 键 词：现金流量 财务困境 判别分析 模型 

分 类 号：F275.2[经济管理—企业管理]