山东近岸黄海极值风速预测及防灾建议——基于极值分布和风向的预测  

Prediction of extreme wind velocity and prevention suggestions in Yellow Sea near-shore area of Shandong Province——Prediction based on extreme value distribution and wind direction

作　　者：冯有良[1] 高强[1] 高乐华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《海洋环境科学》2012年第4期581-585,共5页Marine Environmental Science

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金博导类资助课题(20110132110015);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地海洋发展研究院自设项目(2012JDZS03)

摘　　要：在总结有关海上大风预测研究成果的基础上,根据极值理论合理选取预测极值风速的极值分布计算模型:Gumbel分布和Poisson-Gumbel分布。根据山东近岸黄海26 a的风速观测资料,采用分风向统计数据和投影法处理数据,充分考虑风向和相邻风向的影响,形成十六个风向的年极值序列和过程极值序列样本;最后,用两种模型计算得到各个风向的极值风速预测结果,对比不考虑风向的计算结果,分析出黄海海域海洋风灾发生的时间规律和致灾风向,并对黄海海域的防风减灾提出合理建议。In this paper, the research results of wind disasters prediction are summarized firstly offshore. According to extreme value theory, the Gumbel and Poisson-Gumbel distribution model were reasonably selected for predicting the extreme wind velocity. Then, a statistical analysis was made for the practical measured wind data of 26 years and the data were processed under sixteen wind direc- tions. The projection method was used to process every wind direction data. The annual maximum samples and peak over threshold samples were formed for sixteen wind directions under full account of wind directions and the impact of adjacent wind directions. Fi- nally, the predicted results of every wind direction were obtained, which were calculated by two models. Upon the comparison with the results from current code, the proposed solution can obtain the time and directions of the wind disasters, and the reasonable pro- posals on preventing offshore wind disasters were put forward.

关 键 词：极值风速预测 风向 极值分布 防灾建议 近岸黄海 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]