基于相空间重构的风速和风功率超短期预测  

Super Short-Term Prediction of Wind Speed and Wind Power in Wind Farm Based on Phase-Space Reconstruction

作　　者：张晋华[1,2] 程鹏[2] 刘永前[1] 陈构洪[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学可再生能源学院,北京102206 [2]华北水利水电学院,河南郑州450011

出　　处：《人民黄河》2012年第7期117-120,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(201201085)

摘　　要：风速为随机变化的量,风电机组的输出功率具有波动性,大量风电并网将会对电力系统的安全、稳定运行及电能质量带来严峻挑战,因此风电场的风速和发电功率预测在风电场的调度和管理中起着重要的作用。根据风速具有混沌特性,讨论运用C-C方法对混沌时间序列的相空间进行重构,并对某风电场10台机组的相空间进行重构,采用加权一阶局域预测模型,得到1 h内的短期风速预测值,利用功率曲线转换法得到每台机组的发电功率。经实例证明所提出的方法是可行和有效的。As the random variable of wind speed brings fluctuation to the power output of wind turbines,large scale integration of wind power grids may present serious challenges to the safety,stability and quality of the power system,making prediction of wind speed and power output of a wind farm critical in dispatching and management.Based on the chaos characteristic of wind speed,the paper discussed the phase-space reconstruction of chaotic time series with the C-C method.By reconstructing the phase-space of 10 wind turbines of a wind farm,using the prediction model of adding-weight one-rank local-region method,the paper obtained the short-time prediction value of the wind speed as well as the power output of each wind power turbine with the power curve method,proving the validity and feasibility of the approaches brought forth in this paper with actual cases.

关 键 词：风力发电 混沌属性 相空间重构 风速时间序列 短期预测 

分 类 号：TK83[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]