采用均匀设计SP调查的出行方式选择建模与敏感性分析  

Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of Travel Choice Based on Uniform Design and SP Survey

作　　者：景鹏[1,2] 隽志才[1] 贾玲玉[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052 [2]江苏大学汽车与交通工程学院,江苏镇江212013 [3]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《预测》2012年第4期75-80,共6页Forecasting

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金资助项目(11YJC630084);江苏省社会科学基金资助项目(11SHD011)

摘　　要：本文采用均匀设计的方法设计了关于出行方式选择的SP调查方案,考虑到影响因素随出行者和出行方式的变化有所差异,建立以不同出行方式为效用基础项的条件logit模型,验证了模型的有效性并对模型进行了标定,从多个角度对模型标定结果进行了分析。最后计算了各种出行方式对于各种因素的弹性值,分析了方式选择概率对于各种影响因素的敏感性。研究表明,小汽车出行方式对各种影响因素的敏感性较高,证明了从交通需求管理政策入手引导出行者从小汽车转向其他出行方式的可行性。This paper designed the SP survey constructed with uniform design method. Considering the factors that may be differented with the travelers and travel mode, the Logit model for two types basic utility of travel choice was established. The Logit model was verified and calibrated. Afterward, the calibration results of the model are analyzed from various aspects. Finally, the elasticity values for a variety of factors were analyzed the sensitivity of travel choice probabilities. Research shows that the sensitivity of using car for various factors affected is higher. The result proved that it is feasible to guide travelers to choose other travel modes instead of driving cars by the traffic demand management policies.

关 键 词：均匀设计 SP调查 出行方式选择 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]