基于多角度的我国房地产行业数学模型的建立与分析  

Mathematical Model and Analysis of China's Real Estate Industry in Several Aspects

作　　者：刘文[1] 王骏[2] 汪晓银[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学食品科学技术学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]华中农业大学理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2012年第15期100-113,共14页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：华中农业大学研究生教育创新工程项目"数学交叉学科创新型人才培养模式与机制研究"

摘　　要：房地产业在我国国民经济中起着重要的作用,通过建立数学模型,从多个角度研究我国的房地产行业的性质与发展态势.首先,建立了基于联立方程组的住房的供给和需求模型,并结合蛛网模型进行分析,发现我国房地产目前处于一个非均衡的阶段;接着,建立了基于VAR模型的房地产行业和国民经济13个主要其他行业关系模型,找到了与房地产业互相影响的产业;再接着建立了基于组合权重的GC-TOSIS法的我国房地产行业态势分析模型,得出近几年房地产的态势不太乐观的结论;并通过态势分析模型得到我国房地产的经济发展情况,并引入可持续发展指数,建立了基于离散Hopfield神经网络的房地产行业可持续发展模型,得到我国房地产行业可持续发展程度以及可持续发展的等级正在逐渐增高.最后,结合以上四个模型,综合分析我国房地产的各个方面的发展趋势,并提供了可行性建议.The real estate industry plays an important role in our national economy. This article researches China＇s real estate industry and the trend of the development from various perspectives using mathematical model. Firstly, based on simultaneous equations model of the housing supply and demand combined with the cobweb model, we find that China＇s real estate is unbalanced currently. Then we discuss the relationship between the real estate industry and the 13 other main industries via the VAR model to determine several industries of mutual influence. Next, constructing the GC-TOSIS model with combinational weight to study the trend,we bring the conclusion that the the real estate is in the shadow. On the foundation of results, we propose the Sustainable Development Index and establish the sustainable development model though the discrete Hopfield neural network to get the level of sustainable development of the real estate industry in China which is gradually increased. Finally, based on the above models, we analyse the real estate in several aspects and provide feasible suggestions.

关 键 词：联立方程组 VAR 离散HOPFIELD神经网络 GC—TOSIS 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F293.3