基于报童模型的过度自信零售商的订货决策与协调研究  

Research on Ordering Decision and Coordination of Overconfident Retailer Based on Newsvendor Model

作　　者：周永务[1] 刘哲睿[1] 郭金森[1] 李绩才[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广东广州510640

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2012年第3期62-66,共5页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70971041;71072165;71131003);广东省自然科学基金资助项目(10151064101000003);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(Y6110095)

摘　　要：根据以往过度自信的研究,我们借用报童模型,设定了一个期望需求及方差预测都存在偏差的过度自信零售商,探究了该零售商与理性零售商在订购量及利润方面的差别,算出了过度自信零售商的利润损失。并且分情况讨论,供应商是否能采取契约机制实现有过度自信零售商的供应链利润最大化。Based on the past research on overconfidence, has both biased belief on mean and variance of demand. we present a model of an overconfident newsvendor who We investigate the deviation on orders and profits between him and the rational one, then calculate the loss of these deviations caused by overconfidence. We discuss how supplier could take contractual mechanisms to achieve the maximize profits of supply chain, when confronted with a overconfident retailer.

关 键 词：供应链协调 订购偏差 回购契约 过度自信 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]